Publications

To determine how survival and clinical status were related to left ventricular (LV) size and systolic function after mitral valve replacement, 104 patients (48 mitral regurgitation [MR], 33 mitral stenosis [MS], and 23 MS/MR) with isolated mitral valve replacement were evaluated before and after surgery. Preoperative hemodynamic abnormalities by cardiac catheterization were improved 6 months after surgery in all three patient groups. The patients with MR exhibited reductions in LV end-diastolic volume index (EDVI) (117 +/- 51 to 89 +/- 27 ml/m2, p less than 0.001) and ejection fraction (EF) (0.56 +/- 0.15 to 0.45 +/- 0.13, p less than 0.001); however, the ratio of forward stroke volume to end-diastolic volume increased (0.32 +/- 0.21 to 0.45 +/- 0.17, p less than 0.001) because of the elimination of regurgitant volume. Survival analysis revealed that mortality was significantly higher in MS or MS/MR patients with postoperative EDVI more than 101 ml/m2 (p less than 0.001 and p less than 0.042, respectively) and in MR patients with postoperative EF less than or equal to 0.50 (p less than 0.031). Also, the majority of patients with MR or MS/MR and postoperative EDVI more than 101 ml/m2 and EF less than or equal to 0.50 were in New York Heart Association class III or IV. Multivariate logistic regression analysis in the patients with MR revealed that the strongest predictor of postoperative EF was preoperative EF (p less than 0.001).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The Doppler echocardiographic estimation of cardiac output at the mitral valve site is often underestimated in adults with slow heart rates because the mitral valve remains open in mid-diastole when flow is markedly reduced. Therefore we tested several approaches to this measurement in 17 adults with nonvalvular heart disease who had thermodilution catheters in the right side of the heart. Superior correlations with thermal output values were obtained by a new method that excludes mitral orifice measurements during mid-diastole when flow less than 10 cm/sec (r = 0.94) compared with the standard method (r = 0.89). Also, the new method resulted in significantly less underestimation of thermal cardiac output in patients with heart rates less than 70 beats/min (-10%) compared with the standard method (-34%). In addition, use of a constant maximal two-dimensional echocardiographic mitral orifice correction factor of 0.77 with the new method to account for variations in mitral valve orifice during the cardiac cycle, as opposed to 0.68 with the standard method, resulted in similar results as compared with determining individual correction factors from M-mode echoes. We conclude that: (1) the mitral orifice approach is accurate for measuring cardiac output in adult patients with nonvalvular heart disease; (2) a new method that excludes mid-diastolic mitral orifice measurements is superior to the standard method; and (3) use of a constant two-dimensional echocardiographic mitral valve orifice correction factor obviates the need for M-mode echoes.

To develop a model for predicting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) morbidity in San Francisco, Calif, through June 1993, we combined annual human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion rates for homosexual and bisexual men and for heterosexual intravenous drug users with estimates of the cumulative proportion of the population with AIDS by duration of human immunodeficiency virus infection and with estimates of the size of the at-risk populations. We projected AIDS mortality by applying Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival time following diagnosis to the projected number of cases. The median incubation period for AIDS among homosexual and bisexual men infected with the human immunodeficiency virus was estimated to be 11.0 years (mean, 11.8 years; 95% confidence interval, 10.6 to 13.0 years). The model projects 12,349 to 17,022 cumulative cases of AIDS in San Francisco through June 1993, with 9,966 to 12,767 cumulative deaths.