Publications

Donor livers are offered to patients with the highest risk of death. How ascites could inform risk models to reduce liver transplant wait-list mortality is unclear. All adult candidates for primary liver transplantation for cirrhosis without exception points who were registered with the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network from 2005 to 2007 composed our study cohort. Using Cox models and advanced discriminative metrics and paying attention to geographic disparities, we evaluated the additional risk discrimination of moderate ascites over that of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) or the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease plus serum sodium (MELD-Na) alone for the prediction of 90-day wait-list mortality. Additional analyses examined lower mortality risk candidates and those listed in high-demand, low-supply United Network for Organ Sharing regions in which accounting for ascites may most significantly affect wait-list mortality. Between 2005 and 2007, 18,124 subjects were listed for liver transplantation. Mortality was higher in patients with moderate ascites (15.4% versus 6.0%, P < 0.0001), and this risk persisted despite adjustments for MELD (hazard ratio = 1.58, 95% confidence interval = 1.42-1.76) and MELD-Na (hazard ratio = 1.42, 95% confidence interval = 1.28-1.58). The effect of moderate ascites was more prominent with a MELD score <21 (equal to 4.7 MELD units) or with a MELD-Na score <21 (equal to 3.5 MELD-Na units). Wait-list mortality was higher in patients with moderate ascites who were listed in high-demand, limited-supply regions (25.8% versus 17.5% at 1 year, P < 0.01). With the addition of moderate ascites, there was improvement in the overall risk model, particularly with a MELD score <21, as measured by the C index and integrated discrimination improvement. Moderate ascites informed risk prediction, particularly with a MELD score <21 and in high-demand, limited-supply regions. Under the MELD system, the presence of moderate ascites should prompt clinicians to consider strategies to expand access to transplantation, such as the use of extended donor liver grafts.

BACKGROUND

In the era of antiretroviral therapy (ART), depression and substance use predict hastened HIV disease progression, but the underlying biological or behavioral mechanisms that explain these effects are not fully understood.

METHODS

Using outcome data from 603 participants enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of a behavioral intervention, binary logistic and linear regression were employed to examine whether inconsistent patterns of ART utilization partially mediated the effects of depression and substance use on higher HIV viral load over a 25-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Elevated affective symptoms of depression independently predicted ART discontinuation [adjusted odds ratio = 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08 to 1.78], and use of stimulants at least weekly independently predicted intermittent ART utilization (adjusted odds ratio = 2.62, 95% CI = 1.45 to 4.73). After controlling for the average self-reported percentage of ART doses taken and baseline T-helper (CD4) count, elevated depressive symptoms predicted a 50% higher mean viral load, and weekly stimulant use predicted a 137% higher mean viral load. These effects became nonsignificant after accounting for inconsistent patterns of ART utilization, providing evidence of partial mediation.

CONCLUSIONS

Inconsistent patterns of ART utilization may partially explain the effects of depression and stimulant use on hastened HIV disease progression.