Publications

Inhibitors of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) main protease (M) such as nirmatrelvir (NTV) and ensitrelvir (ETV) have proven effective in reducing the severity of COVID-19, but the presence of resistance-conferring mutations in sequenced viral genomes raises concerns about future drug resistance. Second-generation oral drugs that retain function against these mutants are thus urgently needed. We hypothesized that the covalent hepatitis C virus protease inhibitor boceprevir (BPV) could serve as the basis for orally bioavailable drugs that inhibit SARS-CoV-2 M more efficiently than existing drugs. Performing structure-guided modifications of BPV, we developed a picomolar-affinity inhibitor, ML2006a4, with antiviral activity, oral pharmacokinetics, and therapeutic efficacy similar or superior to those of NTV. A crucial feature of ML2006a4 is a derivatization of the ketoamide reactive group that improves cell permeability and oral bioavailability. Last, ML2006a4 was found to be less sensitive to several mutations that cause resistance to NTV or ETV and occur in the natural SARS-CoV-2 population. Thus, anticipatory design can preemptively address potential resistance mechanisms to expand future treatment options against coronavirus variants.

The spread of infectious diseases is shaped by spatial and temporal aspects, such as host population structure or changes in the transmission rate or number of infected individuals over time. These spatiotemporal dynamics are imprinted in the genome of pathogens and can be recovered from those genomes using phylodynamics methods. However, phylodynamic methods typically quantify either the temporal or spatial transmission dynamics, which leads to unclear biases, as one can potentially not be inferred without the other. Here, we address this challenge by introducing a structured coalescent skyline approach, MASCOT-Skyline that allows us to jointly infer spatial and temporal transmission dynamics of infectious diseases using Markov chain Monte Carlo inference. To do so, we model the effective population size dynamics in different locations using a non-parametric function, allowing us to approximate a range of population size dynamics. We show, using a range of different viral outbreak datasets, potential issues with phylogeographic methods. We then use these viral datasets to motivate simulations of outbreaks that illuminate the nature of biases present in the different phylogeographic methods. We show that spatial and temporal dynamics should be modeled jointly even if one seeks to recover just one of the two. Further, we showcase conditions under which we can expect phylogeographic analyses to be biased, particularly different subsampling approaches, as well as provide recommendations of when we can expect them to perform well. We implemented MASCOT-Skyline as part of the open-source software package MASCOT for the Bayesian phylodynamics platform BEAST2.