Publications

BACKGROUND

In the Raloxifene Use for The Heart trial, 10 101 postmenopausal women with coronary heart disease (CHD) or multiple CHD risk factors were randomly assigned to 60 mg/d raloxifene or to placebo and followed for a median of 5.6 years. Raloxifene, a selective estrogen receptor modulator, was found to reduce the risk of invasive breast cancer and vertebral fractures but not the risk of cardiovascular events. Here, we provide further details about breast cancer incidence by tumor characteristics, duration of treatment, and subgroup.

METHODS

Reported breast cancer was adjudicated by an independent committee based on medical records and pathology reports. The primary analyses used Cox proportional hazards models with time to first breast cancer as the outcome. Subgroup effects were analyzed using similar models with terms for treatment by subgroup. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

As previously reported, raloxifene reduced the incidence of invasive breast cancer by 44% (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.38 to 0.83; absolute risk reduction = 1.2 invasive breast cancers per 1000 women treated for 1 year). The lower incidence of invasive breast cancer reflected a 55% lower incidence of invasive estrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumors (HR = 0.45; 95% CI = 0.28 to 0.72). However, raloxifene treatment did not reduce the incidence of noninvasive breast cancer or of invasive ER-negative breast cancer. The reduced incidence of invasive breast cancer was similar across subgroups, including those defined by age, body mass index, family history of breast cancer, prior use of postmenopausal hormones, and 5-year estimated risk of invasive breast cancer.

CONCLUSION

Raloxifene reduces risk of invasive ER-positive breast cancer regardless of a woman's baseline breast cancer risk but does not reduce risk of noninvasive or ER-negative breast cancers. These results confirm those of the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation, a previous randomized trial among women with osteoporosis.

Using respondent-driven sampling (RDS), we gathered data from 128 HIV surveillance studies conducted outside the United States through October 1, 2007. We examined predictors of poor study outcomes, reviewed operational, design and analytical challenges associated with conducting RDS in international settings and offer recommendations to improve HIV surveillance. We explored factors for poor study outcomes using differences in mean sample size ratios (recruited/calculated sample size) as the outcome variable. Ninety-two percent of studies reported both calculated and recruited sample sizes. Studies of injecting drug users had a higher sample size ratio compared with other risk groups. Study challenges included appropriately defining eligibility criteria, structuring social network size questions, selecting design effects and conducting statistical analysis. As RDS is increasingly used for HIV surveillance, it is important to learn from past practical, theoretical and analytical challenges to maximize the utility of this method.