Publications

OBJECTIVE

HIV-infected persons have substantially higher risk of kidney failure than persons without HIV, but serum creatinine levels are insensitive for detecting declining kidney function. We hypothesized that urine markers of kidney injury would be associated with declining kidney function among HIV-infected women.

METHODS

In the Women's Interagency HIV Study, we measured concentrations of albumin-to-creatinine ratio, interleukin-18 (IL-18), kidney injury marker-1 (KIM-1), and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin from stored urine among 908 HIV-infected and 289 HIV-uninfected participants. Primary analyses used cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (CKD-EPI eGFRcys) as the outcome, measured at baseline and 2 follow-up visits over 8 years; secondary analyses used creatinine (CKD-EPI eGFRcr). Each urine biomarker was categorized into tertiles, and kidney decline was modeled with both continuous and dichotomized outcomes.

RESULTS

Compared with the lowest tertiles, the highest tertiles of albumin-to-creatinine ratio (-0.15 mL/min per 1.73 m, P < 0.0001), IL-18 (-0.09 mL/min per 1.73 m, P < 0.0001) and KIM-1 (-0.06 mL/min per 1.73 m, P < 0.001) were independently associated with faster eGFRcys decline after multivariate adjustment including all 3 biomarkers among HIV-infected women. Among these biomarkers, only IL-18 was associated with each dichotomized eGFRcys outcome: ≥3% (relative risk = 1.40; 95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 1.89); ≥5% (1.88; 1.30 to 2.71); and ≥10% (2.16; 1.20 to 3.88) for the highest versus lowest tertile. In alternative models using eGFRcr, the high tertile of KIM-1 had independent associations with 5% (1.71; 1.25 to 2.33) and 10% (1.78; 1.07 to 2.96) decline, and the high IL-18 tertile with 10% decline (1.97; 1.00 to 3.87).

CONCLUSIONS

Among HIV-infected women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study cohort, novel urine markers of kidney injury detect risk for subsequent declines in kidney function.

BACKGROUND

Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.

METHODS

We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden.

FINDINGS

In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania.

INTERPRETATION

Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Wnt/β-catenin signaling plays a key role in the pathogenesis of colon and other cancers; emerging evidence indicates that oncogenic β-catenin regulates several biological processes essential for cancer initiation and progression. To decipher the role of β-catenin in transformation, we classified β-catenin activity in 85 cancer cell lines in which we performed genome-scale loss-of-function screens and found that β-catenin active cancers are dependent on a signaling pathway involving the transcriptional regulator YAP1. Specifically, we found that YAP1 and the transcription factor TBX5 form a complex with β-catenin. Phosphorylation of YAP1 by the tyrosine kinase YES1 leads to localization of this complex to the promoters of antiapoptotic genes, including BCL2L1 and BIRC5. A small-molecule inhibitor of YES1 impeded the proliferation of β-catenin-dependent cancers in both cell lines and animal models. These observations define a β-catenin-YAP1-TBX5 complex essential to the transformation and survival of β-catenin-driven cancers.